The 2024 French Open is upon us, and the men’s bracket looks the most open it has been in some time. Poor form and injuries have made all the top players seem far from invincible this clay season. Still, the best of five format and distinctness of the clay courts will highlight some players' superior abilities and mentalities. Of the 128 men in the field, 10 can be singled out with the best chances.
Tier One: Top Contender
Carlos Alcaraz
Six years into his pro career, it is safe to say Alcaraz has more than lived up to the lofty expectations put onto him. At just 21, he has a year-end number 1 and 13 career titles, 7 of which are on clay. Surprisingly, he won major tournaments on grass and hard courts before clay, despite the consensus opinion that clay is his top surface. Alcaraz has proven he is a top-level clay courter and best of five competitor, and he should be considered the favorite to put it together and win his third major and first in Paris.
Jannik Sinner
In 2024, Sinner has been the best tennis player in the world. In January, he won a major tournament for the first time at the Australian Open. He carried his strong play beyond Melbourne, winning titles in Miami and Rotterdam. His clay season was unfortunately hampered by injuries, having to withdraw from Madrid in the quarterfinals and missing Milan entirely. This has allowed Sinner to go a tad under the radar when talking about favorites in Paris. Jannik says that he feels fine, however, meaning he has strong potential to widen his lead in the Year-end ranking race.
Alexander Zverev
Zverev has really rediscovered himself, beginning to look like the player he did before his leg injury in 2022. Before that injury, he was in the semifinals of Roland Garros before the match ended prematurely. In 2024 he’s shown solid form on clay, including winning the Italian Open. He was a bit unlucky with the draw, having to face Rafael Nadal in the first round. Even still, Zverev has a real chance at winning his first Grand Slam in Paris.
Tier Two: Dark Horses
Andrey Rublev
It would be very easy to justify Rublev in the tier of top challengers. He won the 2024 Madrid open and has a career 67% win percentage on clay. However, he has struggled to get over the hump in Grand Slams, as he holds an 0-10 record in the quarterfinals of major tournaments. Rublev has the ability, but he has to prove he can play his best tennis in five set matches.
Holger Rune
Rune has had a bit of an underwhelming season, only playing in one final and winning no titles to this point. However, he’s proven himself to be a top clay court player in season’s past. Each of the past two years, Rune played in the Roland Garros quarterfinals. His clay court prowess makes him a candidate for the later stages of this year’s French Open.
Casper Ruud
Although he lost both matches in straight sets, Ruud made the finals of both the 2022 and 2023 editions of this tournament. Additionally, he has 11 career clay court titles, including a pair in 2024. If the stars align and he plays his best tennis, he has a real chance to leave Paris as champion.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
In 2021, Tsitsipas got very close to winning his first French Open, going up 2 sets in the finals that Novak Djokovic would eventually win. Since that tournament, he has yet to make it past the quarterfinals in Paris but has had success in other clay tournaments. Most recently, he won in Monte-Carlo last April while dropping just one set in the process. His clay form and general ability give him a real shot at this year’s title.
Sebastian Baez
Baez is a true clay court specialist, with 5 of his 6 career titles coming on the surface. This season he has an outstanding 73% win percentage on clay in 2024, securing two titles for the year in the process. He doesn’t quite have prior success in major tournaments, but he has the ability to beat anyone on clay.
Tier Three: Unwise To Count Them Out
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic has not had the dominant first half of the season that tennis fans have become accustomed to, as the world number one has yet to win a tournament in 2024. Novak has a different gear in grand slams, however, and has pulled off major title wins before while coming into the tournament below his best. While he can’t be called a favorite, he certainly cannot be ignored.
Rafael Nadal
Nadal has battled injuries and is seemingly running out of time as a pro tennis player. His ranking currently sits outside the top 100, and it may well stay that way for the entirety of his career. Having to face fourth seeded Alexander Zverev in the first round is certainly no easy task either. Nadal’s name, however, has to be mentioned. He is the best clay court player in the history of tennis. His fourteen Roland Garros titles is the most any man or woman has recorded at a single tournament. Rafael Nadal is Roland Garros, and every other person in the draw would rather avoid him if possible.